I know I’m supposed to want it to keep going up as a wealth generator or whatever.

But like… I wouldn’t be able to afford the monthly payments if I bought my house right now and it’s scary. Also none of my friends are buying homes, none of them are even renting full places. Just like renting rooms.

So what are your feelings home owners of lemmy?

  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
    01·
    1 year ago

    Legislation could also force a lot of homes on the market.

    Gonna stop you right there because the rest of your response is fantasy, if legislation can’t be passed.

    Whose gonna propose those bills? Who is going to vote on them? Where are they going to pass? Give me reasonable answers to those questions and we can proceed.

    I bought in Honolulu in 2020 after owning in Oregon for 6 years. The average sale price is 1.5 million, median is 1.1 million, and the houses are straight up rotten garbage (I grew up in North County San Diego in a construction family, SD has much higher build quality).

    There are basically no homes for sale in Honolulu county right now. Just scanned the numbers this AM. Tear downs are going for 600-800k.

    A crash wouldnt bother me, but its basically unbelievable to me. Ultimately all that money printed is going to find its way into inflated durable goods, and (ding ding ding) residential property.

    Sorry to let you know this brother (or sister or non-gender conforming individual), but selling that condo might have been a fatal mistake. Its not clear to me based on macro economic and ongoing political conditions that housing prices will ever materially go down. Honolulu has a ban and cap on short term rentals. Didn’t do shit. We’ve got more homeless than ever and rents have gone up 30% since. Add onto that losses of structures due to climate related disasters. California had the Tubbs fire (1k homes?) and then the Paradise fire (11k homes). We just had the Lahaina fire. Those homes aren’t getting rebuilt into affordable housing, I promise.

    I’ve done the math. There is no reasonable scenario I can see where housing prices go down substantially over the next 20 years. We’re going to be supply side constrained with ever increasing demand. This is a hold/ buy and hold time.